• National Bureau of Statistics says 105m Nigerians have slipped into extreme poverty
  • Inflation hits 14.23% in October, the highest in four years
  • Zamfara records the highest of over 17%, Cross River has the lowest with over 10%
  • Urban inflation rate increased by 14.81%

LATEST release by the National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, yesterday, revealed that 105 million Nigerians have slipped into extreme poverty.

With a population of 200 million, the above revelation means that more than half of Nigerians are living below the poverty line.

It is no surprise as the consumer price index, CPI (an index of prices paid for goods and services by the public), in the month of October 2020 increased by 14.23 per cent when compared with that of October 2019.

This is 0.52 per cent points higher than the rate recorded in September 2020 (13.71 per cent).

The 0.52 per cent increase is the highest recorded since July 2016 when the inflation rate increased by 0.65 per cent.

The CPI measures inflation — the rate at which the prices of goods and services increase over a period of time.

According to the report, increases were recorded in all classification of individual consumption according to purpose, COICOP, divisions that yielded the headline index (the raw inflation figure).

On a month against the previous month basis, the headline index increased by 1.54 per cent in October 2020, this is 0.06 per cent rate higher than the rate recorded in September 2020 (1.48 per cent).

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending October 2020 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 12.66 per cent, showing a 0.22 per cent point rise from 12.44 per cent recorded in September 2020.

The urban or city inflation rate increased by 14.81 per cent year-on-year (when compared to the previous year) in October 2020 from 14.31 per cent recorded in September 2020, while the rural inflation rate increased by 13.68 per cent in October 2020 from 13.14 per cent in September 2020.

On a month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 1.60 per cent in October 2020, up by 0.04 from 1.56 per cent recorded in September 2020, while the rural index also rose by 1.48 percent in October 2020, up by 0.08 from the rate recorded in September 2020 (1.40 per cent).

The corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 13.29 per cent in October 2020.

This is higher than 13.07 per cent reported in September 2020, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in October 2020 is 12.09 per cent compared to 11.86 per cent recorded in September 2020.

Similarly, the composite food index rose by 17.38 per cent in October 2020 compared to 16.66 per cent in September 2020.

This rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of bread and cereals, potatoes, yam and other tubers, meat, fish, fruits, vegetable, alcoholic and food beverages and oils and fats.

“On month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 1.96 per cent in October 2020, up by 0.08 per cent points from 1.88 per cent recorded in September 2020.

“The average annual rate of change of the food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending October 2020 over the previous twelve-month average was 15.42 per cent, representing a 0.29  per cent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in September 2020 (15.13) per cent.

“The ‘all items less farm produce’ or core inflation (the long run trend in the price level), which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce (rising from low short term production and consumption elasticities) stood at 11.14 per cent in October 2020, up by 0.56 per cent when compared with 10.58 per cent recorded in September 2020.

“On month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 1.25 per cent in October 2020. This was up by 0.31 per cent when compared with 0.94 per cent recorded in September 2020.

“The highest increases were recorded in prices of passenger transport by air, hospital and medical services, passenger transport by road, pharmaceutical products, motor cars,  vehicle spare parts, maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment, hairdressing salons and personal grooming establishments, miscellaneous services relating to the dwelling, paramedical services and shoes and other footwear.

“The average 12-month annual rate of change of the index was 9.96 per cent for the twelve-month period ending October 2020 representing is 0.19 per cent points higher than 9.77 per cent recorded in September 2020,” the report read.

On the state profiles, Zamfara State recorded the highest with over 17 per cent, while Cross River State recorded the slowest rise with over 10 per cent.

“In analysing price movements under this section, note that the CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns which differ across states. Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from state to state making interstate comparisons of consumption basket inadvisable and potentially misleading.

“In October 2020, all items inflation on year-on-year basis was highest in Zamfara (17.69 per cent), Sokoto (16.99 per cent) and Ebonyi (16.91 per cent), while Lagos (11.96 per cent), Abuja (11.84 per cent) and Cross River (10.50 per cent) recorded the slowest rise in headline year-on-year inflation.

“On month-on-month basis however, October 2020 all items inflation was highest in Sokoto (2.91 per cent), Edo (2.53 per cent) and Akwa Ibom (2.52 per cent), while Oyo (0.69 per cent), Taraba (0.60 per cent) and Jigawa (0.37 per cent) recorded the slowest rise in headline month on month inflation.

“In October 2020, food inflation on a year-on-year basis was highest in Edo (21.65 per cent), Zamfara (20.88 per cent) and Kogi (20.58 per cent), while Lagos (14.57 per cent), Ogun  (14.47 per cent) and Ondo  (14.23 per cent) recorded the slowest rise.

“On month-on-month basis however, October 2020 food inflation was highest in Kwara (3.88 per cent), Edo (3.81 per cent) and Sokoto (3.65 per cent), while Oyo (0.57 per cent) and Jigawa (0.54 per cent) and Taraba (0.29 per cent) recorded the slowest rise on month on month inflation,” NBS said.