Nigeria’s worst inflation rate!

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*Shows highest in Kogi at 39.97%, Bauchi 38.34%, Kwara 38.10%

*Food inflation rate in March 2024 was 40.01% on a year-on-year basis

*Shows 15.56% points higher compared to rate recorded in March 2023 (24.45%)

*Food inflation on a year-on-year basis caused by increases in sundry items

By Our Correspondent

National Bureau for Statistics has disclosed that the headline inflation rate increased to 33.20% March 2024, relative to the February 2024 headline inflation rate which was 31.70%. This was revealed in the NBS report published in Abuja yesterday.

Analysis of the March 2024 headline inflation rate showed an increase of 1.50% points when compared to the February 2024 headline inflation rate.

On a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 11.16% points higher compared to the rate recorded in March 2023, which was 22.04%.

This shows that the headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) increased in the month of March 2024 when compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., March 2023).

Further analysis indicates that on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in March 2024 was 3.02%, which was 0.10% lower than the rate recorded in February 2024 (3.12%).

This means that in the month of March 2024, the rate of increase in the average price level is less than the rate of increase in the average price level in February 2024.

The percentage change in the average CPI for the twelve-month period ending March 2024 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was 27.13%, showing a 6.76% increase compared to 20.37% recorded in March 2023.

On a year-on-year basis, in the month of March 2024, the urban inflation rate was 35.18%, this was 12.11% points higher compared to the 23.07% recorded in March 2023.

On a month on-month basis, the urban inflation rate was 3.17% in March 2024, this was 0.0001% points marginally and insignificantly lower compared to February 2024 (3.17%).

The corresponding twelve-month average for the Urban inflation rate was 28.96% in March 2024. This was 7.96 % points higher compared to the 21.00% reported in March 2023.

The Rural inflation rate in March 2024 was 31.45% on a year-on-year basis; this was 10.37% higher compared to the 21.09% recorded in March 2023.

On a month-on-month basis, the rural inflation rate in March 2024 was 2.87%, down by 0.20% points compared to February 2024 (3.07%).

Also the corresponding twelve-month average for the rural inflation rate in March 2024 was 25.50%. This was 5.71% higher compared to the 19.79% recorded in March 2023.

The Food inflation rate in March 2024 was 40.01% on a year-on-year basis, which was 15.56% points higher compared to the rate recorded in March 2023 (24.45%).

The rise in Food inflation on a year-on-year basis was caused by increases in prices of the following items Garri, Millet, Akpu, uncooked Fermented (which are under the Bread and Cereals class), Yam Tuber, Water Yam (under Potatoes, Yam, and other Tubers class), Dried Fish Sadine, Mudfish Dried (under Fish class), Palm Oil, Vegetable Oil (under Oil and Fat), Beef Feet, Beef Head, Liver (under Meat class), Coconut, Water Melon (under Fruit Class), Lipton Tea, Bournvita, Milo (under Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Class).

However, on a month-on-month basis, the Food inflation rate in March 2024 was 3.62% which shows a 0.17% decrease compared to the rate recorded in February 2024 (3.79%).

The fall in Food inflation on a Month-on-Month basis was caused by a fall in the rate of increase in the average prices of Guinea corn flour, Plantain Flour etc (under Bread and Cereals class), Yam, Irish Potatoe, Coco Yam (under Potatoes, Yam & Other Tubers class), Titus fish, Mudfish Dried (under Fish class), Lipton, Bournvita, Ovaltine (under Coffee, Tea and Cocoa class).

The average annual rate of Food inflation for the twelve months ending March 2024 over the previous twelve-month average was 31.40%, which was 8.69% points increase from the average annual rate of change recorded in March 2023 (22.72%).

The “All items less farm produces and energy” or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produces and energy stood at 25.90% in March 2024 on a year-on-year basis; up by 6.26% when compared to the 19.63% recorded in March 2023.

The highest increases were recorded in prices of the following items Bus Journey within the city (under Passenger Transport by Road class), Actual and Imputed Rentals for Housing, Consultation Fee of a medical doctor (under Medical Services class), and pharmaceutical products, etc. On a month-on-month basis, the Core Inflation rate was 2.54% in March 2024.

It stood at 2.17% in February 2024, an increase of 0.37%. The average twelve-month annual inflation rate was 22.26% for the twelve months ending March 2024; this was 5.04% points higher than the 17.22% recorded in March 2023.

In analysing price movements under this section, it should be noted that CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns which differ across States and locations.

Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular Food or Non-Food item may differ from State to State making interstate comparisons of consumption basket inadvisable and potentially misleading.

All Items inflation rate on a Year-on-Year basis was highest in Kogi (39.97%), Bauchi (38.34%), Kwara (38.10%), and Oyo (37.29%), while Borno (25.78%), Benue/Taraba (28.12%) and Katsina (28.32%) recorded the slowest rise in Headline inflation on Year-on-Year basis.

On a Month-on-Month basis, however, March 2024 recorded the highest increases in Zamfara (3.90%), Abia (3.89%), Ondo (3.75%), while Borno (1.46%), Yobe (1.84%) and Adamawa (1.85%) recorded the slowest rise on Month-on-Month inflation.

Food Inflation In March 2024, Food inflation on a Year-on-Year basis was highest in Kogi (48.46%), Kwara (46.18%), Akwa Ibom (45.18%), while Nasarawa (33.76%), Borno (34.28%) and Bauchi (34.38%), recorded the slowest rise in Food inflation on Year-on-Year basis.

On a Monthon-Month basis, however, March 2024 Food inflation was highest in Abia (5.17%), Cross River (5.14%), Bayelsa (4.75%), while Borno (1.59%), Yobe (2.08%) and Adamawa (2.12%) recorded the slowest rise in Food inflation on Month-on-Month basis.